As we go into another grinding heatwave, which as a food grower myself I feel perhaps more intensely than many, it is worth taking a moment to reflect on where we are.
In the specific context of the U.K, the government has to hand a document which could help guide our response to the awesome mess into which we may be moving in the coming months…
The suppressed NSA about which I have written previously warns quite starkly about what we are heading for. Especially around food unresilience, and on how biodiversity loss here and abroad is setting us up for a terrible fall in that regard and others. Yet, the government has tried to stifle it at every turn. And meanwhile the level of action on preparedness, the level of strategic adaptation and of emergency resilience-building, is desperately low (and the Government’s (broadly-welcome) climate mitigation (ie decarbonisation) mission doesn’t alter that situation significantly).
A mission-like level of focus and of resource is required. And asap; because the current geopolitical and climate crisis may be bringing forward timings: if the NSA has a fault it might turn out that it is if anything too optimistic!
Shipping through the strait of Hormuz is at just 25% of pre-war levels. The super El Niño is now forecast to raise temperatures by 4 degrees C! It is literally off the scale, as the image attached shows:
We are flying blind into this unprecedented nexus of events. The NSA provides some guidance as to what this kind of situation could throw up. And yet we are not allowed to see it. How can this be acceptable? The lives of large numbers of Brits may be thrown into the balance over the next year. Parts of the Global South are likely going to fare far worse (with repercussions for us, including economically and through renewed pressure on migration). How can one conclude anything other than that the Government is failing in its first duty to citizens?
This National Security Assessment says that our national security, our stability, our very future is at risk due to ecosystems being pushed beyond limits. It is no good having a few more drones if you are gambling with the future of the whole planet and of this country in particular through not having any serious plan to deal with the new ecological reality we are in.
Sh*t is getting real. We all felt it, during the recent heatstorm. The ‘Godzilla’ super El Niño has yet to kick in significantly. Ocean temperatures too are record breaking all the time - already. The worst effects of the Hormuz disaster in terms of world food supplies are yet to be felt.
We are still in the ‘phoney war’. But this is the age of consequences. Make no mistake about that.
If you haven’t yet done so, do watch the ITV explainer on what is in the suppressed NSA.
And please share this piece.
And let’s get on with doing what we can to prepare, together.
You are right when you say it is no good having a few more drones if you are gambling with the future of the whole planet and of this country in particular through not having any serious plan to deal with the new ecological reality we are in.
However, a serious plan does not consist of relying on governments to bail out the industrial food system when they are so deeply entrenched in it. They will not budge until its too late.
In contrast, a robust, parallel, self-sufficiency garden food system would provide a proven, reliable source of food, and at scale -- to many millions, to offset the coming breakdown of the industrial system. Because such a garden system requires far less water, energy, land, and mineral sources, it is far more ecologically sustainable, and is much more resilient to climate change disasters because of proximity to personal care. It does, in fact, constitute a serious plan. See my Substack: Ultra-Local, Full-Circle, Self-Sufficiency.
Heatwaves in Europe makes the jet streams unpredictable. And Azores High and Iceland Low pressure systems usually means the North Sea and North Atlantic are unaffected by El Nino. The biggest threat to the UK is the Cold Blob off Greenland.
https://phys.org/news/2026-06-atlantic-cold-blob-weakening-ocean.html
The main thing the NSA should cover is extreme flooding or snow during the winter. The Icelandic Low usually hit Norway the most, and if this goes south, Norway gets much colder! For Snow, there isn't too much to do. But before it becomes regular problem, it may be cheaper to just snow in ... As for flooding, maybe dig out the trash in the canals?
Probably close to impossible with anything actionable over this. How would you tell locals that Bergen winters are possible, with 200 rain days per year and 93 days continuous non stop rain? Check if you river and streams will hold or drain it? Build coastal defense like Netherlands maybe?